The president of the United States, Donald Trump, is coming in the last weeks of the general electoral campaign of Australia, spelling problems for the leader of the conservative opposition Peter Dutton just when a new survey shows the faith of the Australians in the United States in its historical minimum.
Trump’s windy style already often disruptive policies, including “reciprocal” rates against allies and attacks for a long time against government agencies in the United States, have begun to alarm Australia’s voters, analysts and academics.
The dynamic is similar but not the same as in Canada, where the fortunes of the Liberal Party, according to a series of surveys, have been dramatically revived by a change in Justin Trudeau’s leadership to Mark Carney before the vote on April 28.
The Labor Party of the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has increased in several surveys in relation to Dutton’s conservative coalition, with only three and a half weeks to the May 3 elections.
“Trump has become the third candidate in this electoral campaign,” said Mark Kenny, a professor specialized in politics at the National University of Australia in Canberra.
“It made it quite difficult for Peter Dutton to transmit his message, and hindered that Dutton was seen as a completely independent figure in this electoral campaign.”
A survey published Wednesday by the Lowy Institute, a research foundation, found that only 36 percent of Australians expressed any level of confidence in the United States to act in a responsible manner, 20 points since the last survey in June 2024 and the lowest from the annual survey was launched two decades ago.
The survey was conducted in March, before Trump announced its strip of tariffs, including a 10 percent blanket in all Australian imports.
“Given the rules of President Donald Trump for his second term, it is not surprising that Australians trust the United States less,” said Ryan Nelam, director of public opinion and foreign policy of the Lowy Institute.
The headline tries to link Dutton with Trump, Musk
Dutton, of the Liberal Party, has campaigned on several policies widely seen as emulating Trump and his government efficiency department (Doge), established by Elon Musk. In January, Dutton named Jacinta Nampijinpa as a minister in the shadow of government efficiency, a position inspired by the role of Musk, analysts said.
“With the Australians fed up with the wasteful spending that is out of control … Jacinta will closely observe how we can achieve more efficient use of taxpayers’ money,” Dutton said at that time.
The Labor Party has taken advantage of the change of public feeling, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers repeatedly refers to the opposition leader as “Doge-and Dutton.”
Albanese said Tuesday that Dutton would promulgate “Duxt -style cuts” to the public sector if chosen.
“(The Australians) are not enjoying the agitation and whim of the White House, and Dutton’s early enthusiasm along with other conservatives to celebrate Trump’s victory has been more or less leader in his bags of chairs to mount through this campaign,” Kenny said of the Australian National University.
“That weight has become increasingly heavy since Trump has become less and less popular.”
Considerable military, intelligence ties
The combative position of the new US administration is also a campaign issue in relation to military cooperation between the two countries.
Australia has pledged to buy three submarines from Virginia with nuclear energy from the United States in the 2030s under the Aukus trilateral security association that also includes the United Kingdom, in an agreement that contains several plans and contingencies that cover decades. The three countries are also, together with Canada and New Zealand, part of the Five Eyes Intelligence-Sharing Alliance alliance.
The Australian submarine agency said that acquiring nuclear submarines was a key part of Australian’s defense denial strategy, and “will be equipped for intelligence, surveillance, underwater war and strike missions.”
Although Aukus has strong support from the main Australian parties, it has been expressed that defense ties did not win Australia exemptions from Trump’s rates have put the program in unprecedented public scrutiny.
Independent legislators are Trump skeptics and have requested a review of the underwater agreement, although the impact of the independents could be limited to less than a hung parliament result from the vote of May 3.
Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who secured Aukus’s treaty in 2021, said in an interview with Reuters that the threat he represents by China and Australia’s deterrence that operates submarines with nuclear energy in the South Sea and the Indian Ocean promoted the agreement.
“China is the threat, of course they are, and that is what should be deterred,” said Morrison.
“The idea that more American and more British ships are in Australia and its surroundings, and at the Australian station, in the theater, we always knew that this would bring the previous deterrence element,” he added.
Australia’s plan to buy submarines in Virginia was added to Aukus for work in 2023.
Albanese, chosen in 2022, has been less willing to publicly criticize China, even when the Air Force and the Australian Navy continues with the patrols of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. This has become a point of political attack in the electoral campaign for Dutton, who was Minister of Defense in the Morrison government.
