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The G7 is the “steering committee of the free world,” according to Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser. If so, the free world has a problem. Most G7 governments are now so burdened by internal political problems that they are unable to lead their own countries, much less the free world.
Consider the political situations in France, Germany, Canada, Japan and South Korea (the latter is not formally a member of the G7, but regularly attends summits). In France, the government recently fell after it failed to pass a budget. TO new prime minister is in force but will face the same problems. There is much speculation that Emmanuel Macron will resign as president before the scheduled end of his term in 2027.
Germany is heading to elections after the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition led by Olaf Scholz. In the recent elections held in Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority for the first time since 2009, and another election is likely to be held next year. In CanadaJustin Trudeau’s nearly decade in power is coming to an undignified end. With his party far behind in the polls, the prime minister is under intense pressure to resign.
He piece of resistance of democratic decline is South Koreawhere President Yoon Suk Yeol’s political position became so desperate that he declared martial law. Popular protests quickly forced him to back down and led to his impeachment.
Outside of the United States, the only two G7 countries that could claim to have a stable government are the United Kingdom and Italy. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer won a huge majority in this summer’s election. But since then his popularity ratings in the polls have fallen rapidly. In fact, Starmer is now more unpopular after five months in office than any UK prime minister in four decades. Only the Italian Giorgia Meloni can make a plausible statement to be considered favorably by their voters and the markets.
So what ails the G7? As always, local context matters. In Japan, corruption scandals have weakened the LDP. Macron and Trudeau are leaders who have lost their luster after many years in office.
But there also seem to be two big general factors that make it very difficult for almost all G7 democracies to maintain stable governments. The first is the decline of the political center and the rise of populist parties. The second is a fiscal contraction created by slow growth, aging societies, the pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis and demands for increased defense spending.
Populism and fiscal problems feed off each other and make it increasingly difficult to govern. The government of France was overthrown after He tried to cut spending and raise taxes. to combat a budget deficit of 6 percent of GDP. Since a large part of the French parliament is in the hands of either the far left or the far right, it is extremely difficult to negotiate political compromises.
Starmer’s vast majority in Britain made it possible for his government to do what the French could not do: raise taxes, in an effort to balance the books. But tax increases have contributed to the Labor Party’s decline in popularity. The difficulty in finding money in difficult times also played a role in the political crises of Canada and Japan.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is likely to contribute to the atmosphere of political instability across the G7. Instead of trying to help the governments of his democratic allies, Trump and his current favorite, Elon MuskThey seem to enjoy accumulating pain. Maga Republicans especially like to harass center-left leaders like Trudeau, Scholz and Starmer.
Trump has gone to great lengths to humiliate Trudeau, referring to Canada as America’s 51st state and its prime minister as its “governor.” Musk has been in the news throughout Europe for posting on X: “Only the AfD can save Germany.” He also held a highly publicized meeting with Nigel Farage, leader of Reform in Britain, who made it clear that he expects Musk’s financial backing.
Trump’s Republicans no longer consider Europe’s traditional conservatives their sister parties. Kemi Badenoch, leader of the British Conservatives, and Friedrich Merzthe leader of Germany’s Christian Democrats, can only watch with dismay as Trump and Musk move closer to the radical nationalist right. Christian Lindner, the leader of Germany’s struggling pro-business Free Democrats, made a plaintive appeal to “Elon,” informing him that the AfD was a “far-right party.” Poignantly, he seemed to believe this would discourage Musk.
Merz’s CDU is currently well ahead of the AfD in the polls for the German elections. But the populist and far-right parties of the G7 now clearly have a friend in the White House. Musk can help parties like AfD and Reform with advertising and, perhaps, money. But their support could also backfire at times. Nationalist parties such as French National Rally They have a strong anti-American tradition and will be wary of appearing to be tools of rich foreigners.
Trump’s interventions may not guarantee that he can install ideological allies in the rest of the G7. Instead, it may create a situation in which the leaders of many of the United States’ closest allies come to view the American president not as a friend, but as a dangerous political enemy.
