It was another big blockbuster showdown at the box office last weekend, as Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” went head-to-head with Disney’s great prequel “Mufasa: The Lion King.” Not that the third entry in a successful franchise should necessarily be considered an underdog here, but for various reasons, it might have seemed like “Mufasa” had the advantage here. However, that’s how things played out.
Instead, director Jeff Fowler’s “Sonic 3” triumphed with an estimated $62 million in its opening weekend in the United States, which was enough to take the number one spot and, essentially, just in line with industry expectations for the third part of “Sonic” heading into the weekend. Meanwhile, Disney’s “Lion King” prequel, which comes from Oscar-winning director Barry Jenkins, didn’t fare as well. It raised only $35 million, placing it at number two on the charts. To put it in context, 2019’s “The Lion King” opened with over $190 million domestically before racking up over $1.6 billion worldwide, literally becoming one of the highest-grossing films of all time. time. Needless to say, we’re off to a slower start here.
“Sonic 3” doesn’t begin its international release until this week, but “Mufasa” grossed $87.2 million overseas, making it the No. 1 movie worldwide last weekend. Still, a $122.2 million global start isn’t enough for a film of this size, and Disney will now have to rely on unusually long legs and a larger-than-anticipated share outside the U.S. from this point forward. moment.
So what went wrong with “Mufasa” here? How could “Sonic 3” triumph so comfortably in what should have been a much more even matchup? Let’s look at the biggest reasons why this high-profile box office showdown turned out the way it did. Let’s get into it.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 had the critics on its side
It’s not that critics are the deciding factor in how a film performs at the box office. But since video game movies were, for so long, generally terrible, this matters here. In the case of “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” Paramount and Fowler managed to cook up another winner, and the criticism only gets stronger as the franchise progresses. /BJ Colangelo of the film praised the third “Sonic” movie as “bigger, bolder and better” in his own article.and it seems that the public agreed.
On the other hand, “Mufasa” found itself in similar territory to 2019’s “Lion King.” Reviews for the film were mixed, while audiences seemed to like it more. But the response from critics and the public has not been strong enough to motivate families to seek it out. Case in point: “Sonic 3” gets an A CinemaScore, while “Mufasa” got an A-. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still very good, but that drawback matters when we’re talking about a weekend where moviegoers have plenty of options to choose from. It certainly mattered here.
Mufasa suffered the most from the tough competition
Speaking of abundant options, it looks like Disney suffered quite a bit from direct competition this past weekend. “Mufasa” was being marketed to the same potential ticket buyers who were also being targeted by movies like “Wicked” ($13.5 million fifth weekend) and even Disney’s own “Moana 2” ($13 .1 million dollars the fourth weekend). Yes, it’s true that “Sonic 3” is also aimed at the same family audience, but “Moana 2” in particular is literally the same target demographic for a “Lion King” movie. It’s not that Disney planned it that way; “Moana 2” going from a Disney+ streaming series to a theatrical film was a big stepbut it’s also one that could have come at the expense of “Mufasa,” at least to some extent.
Another thing to consider is that the public has not been hungry for familiar food like it was during the early part of the pandemic era. Recently we’ve had movies like “Red One” and even Lionsgate’s sneaky hit “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” to fill that void (not to mention “The Wild Robot” and its ridiculously great run). The point is, without good reviews or strong word of mouth, “Mufasa” was going to be fighting an uphill battle on such a crowded weekend.
Paramount was more effective in selling Sonic 3 to fans
On the other hand, Paramount did an absolutely stellar job of keeping the good vibes going with “Sonic the Hedgehog 3.” Although the third installment was not fully opened as high as the record-breaking “Sonic the Hedgehog 2” ($72 million) did in 2022That $62 million keeps the franchise on the right side of the financial line in light of its budget, which is said to be in the $110 million range. That number suggests Paramount did its job right, and that job was selling this third “Sonic” movie to fans. The studio had to make people understand that this was not more of the same. What’s the reason to rush to the movies and see the third “Sonic” movie in less than five years?
The trailers, in particular, effectively sold Keanu Reeves’ Shadow the Hedgehog. as a compelling villain. Even for the most casual fans who didn’t know Shadow from the “Sonic” video games, the marketing for “Sonic 3” made him feel important and look cool. That also made it clear that the film would have higher stakes, which was enough to keep audiences interested. That’s also easier said than done, as evidenced by what happened with “Mufasa.” Being part of a franchise doesn’t automatically guarantee a win, even if Hollywood sometimes seems to think it does.
Sonic 3 had a much smaller budget than Mufasa
One thing that needs to be addressed here is the costs of both films. On the one hand, “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” was around $110 million before its release. That’s a slight increase from the $90 million Paramount spent on the first two “Sonic” movies, but still reasonable for a franchise in its third installment. Meanwhile, “Mufasa” was notably more expensive, reaching the $200 million range before a costly global marketing spend. And yet, here we are with the much less expensive movie at the top.
It’s not exactly a David and Goliath story; We are talking about two great films from equally well-known franchises. Disney’s original 1994 animated film, “The Lion King,” was a heralded box office hit while the character of Sonic had been a pop culture staple for decades, long before he began dominating the big screen. Still, it’s telling that the reasonably budgeted film aimed at its core audience won here. It’s not that the cost of a movie directly affects ticket sales, but it does affect the bar for success. In this case, Paramount overcame that barrier while Disney stumbled over it.
Time was on Sonic’s side, not Mufasa’s.
It’s hard to quantify the extent to which it mattered, but there’s something to be said for making a sequel in a timely manner. 2019 “The Lion King” was a billion-dollar hit and one of the biggest parts of the most lucrative year in Disney history.only behind “Avengers: Endgame” ($2.79 billion at the global box office). When success is achieved at that level, there will always be a follow-up. In this case, Disney opted for a prequel. Unfortunately, these movies take a long time to make, and in 2020, the pandemic shut down Hollywood for months. That, along with last year’s SAG and WGA strikes, caused a major delay in this film.
“Mufasa” had hit theaters two years ago, who knows? Maybe the interest would have been there. Perhaps it would have benefited from not directly facing another highly anticipated blockbuster sequel. Although not always the case, sequels that take more than a few years to arrive can suffer as audiences move on and/or lose interest. $1.6 billion suggests a lot of interest.
On the other hand, Paramount released the first “Sonic” in 2020, just weeks before the pandemic closed theaters, and it was a huge success. Even with production difficulties, “Sonic 2” hit theaters in the summer of 2022. Again, even with strike delays, “Sonic 3” followed about two and a half years later. The studio has made these movies like clockwork and has built a loyal audience as a result. There is something to be said about that.
There are a lot of great movies to look forward to in 2025but almost none of them will reach us in January. Because of that, both “Sonic 3” and “Mufasa” can potentially hold out well into the new year. Who knows? Maybe “Mufasa” will find an audience as the weeks go by. Either way, you have to imagine that the five-year gap was a factor here. How important is the factor? That is impossible to quantify.
“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King” are now showing in theaters.
